2010 Complete Election Coverage: Pa. seat is latest Democratic worry
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- The death of Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) means a special election will be held in the spring to fill the remainder of his term. John Shinkle
POLITICO 44
Rep. John Murtha’s (D-Pa.) untimely death Monday makes the political map even more daunting for House Democrats, who will have to defend another highly competitive seat in what is shaping up to be a hostile election year.
A special election will be held in the spring to fill the remainder of his term. Once the vacancy is declared, Gov. Ed Rendell (D-Pa.) has 10 days to set the special election date, which can be held 60 days or less from the declaration.
The most likely special election date, according to Democratic sources, is May 18, the same date as the regularly scheduled Pennsylvania primary election. Holding the special election along with the primaries would save Pennsylvania, already struggling to balance its budget, a significant amount of money.
There will be no special primary to nominate candidates. Instead, party leaders from Murtha’s southwestern Pennsylvania-based 12th District will each select the nominees at a convention, and the winners will then square off in the special election.
The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the now-vacant seat to “tossup” status Monday evening, making it the 50th Democratic-held House seat rated in its most competitive groupings.
“As Massachusetts showed last month, Republicans are sure to turn out in droves if they sense any opportunity to pull off a coup,” wrote Cook House race analyst David Wasserman.
Special elections frequently serve as an early-warning system for a party on the ropes, and this one figures to serve as the next barometer of election conditions. Last month’s upset victory by Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts already amped up the already rising levels of Republican optimism and has led to a surge of qualified candidates in states and districts the GOP didn’t originally plan on contesting.
Democrats are familiar with the trend, having won a string of special elections in conservative House districts in 2008, beginning with the seat of former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert. That served as a harbinger of the party’s dominance in the November elections, when Democrats won an additional 21 seats.
In 1994, the year Republicans won both houses of Congress, two House special election victories in Democratic-held seats foreshadowed larger GOP gains to come.
Murtha himself was a special election victor whose February 1974 win signaled President Richard Nixon’s weakness and preceded large Democratic gains that year.
Murtha’s death sets up the likelihood that Republicans will aggressively contest two Democratic-held seats in spring special elections. In Hawaii, Republicans believe they have a shot to win the seat held by Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who is resigning this month to run for governor, because of the unique rules surrounding the state’s special election.
Readers' Comments (53)
Miss CA Party: Conservative
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Feb. 9, 2010 - 5:33 AM EST
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Read all 53 comments in our forum2010 will not be kind to the Dems.
Pennslyvania will not be having the tea party crap, trust me!!!
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Rest in peace John .
Penn's woods are full of American patriots that are clinging to their freedoms . It is
Obama's Progressive Marxist agenda that will once again bring the people out to
vote for the Constitution and jobs .
Took Teddy's seat; gonna take Barry's; gonna take Crazy Joe's; gonna take Abscam John's....
heheheh
Hey, Ghostface: Newsflash! We're here already and stronger than you know (or apparently like).
ghostfacekiller Um, didn't you see that six of seven PA state wide judges went R in November? It was the shot across the bow; PA doesn't vote that red.
Abscam John's seat is the next canary in the coal mine for the Ds. I'm betting they are too arrogant to listen.
Move along, Pubbies. Nothing to see here.
The only good thing about Bill Russell is his name. Otherwise, he's creepy enough to make anyone's skin crawl. And Tim Burns runs a pharmacy technology business...not a good special interest in the midsts of a health care crisis. Murtha beat Russell with only a week of campaigning. He said that he didn't take him seriously because he doesn't even live in the district.
A man dies and Democrats worry about a seat. Is that all there is?
I cannot shake the image of John Murtha kneeling at the Judgment Seat before God and explaining "I was a good and loyal Democrat and I brought tons of money back to my district." What a pathetic image, what an empty legacy.
sadbone They could run a convict and win, as long as there is no D attached to his name.
First Ted's seat; then Abscam John's; next Crazy Joe's and Barry's.
Put out the lights, the party's over....
Any candidate that runs on a believable message of an ability to bring "results" (e.g., defense contracts, government jobs, etc.) will win the seat. Murtha's district realizes that his pork acquisition has been an extremely vital lifeline to the area's economy, and it will vote en masse for whomever it believes can even remotely replicate that supply.
Get used the phrase "House Minority Leader Pelosi" people!
If you were from his district, you'd have an idea of what he meant around here. Otherwise, just shut up because it is apparent that your talking out the side of your neck.
If you're a true American patriot and you're interested in making sure another corrupt, self-serving individual does not take John Murtha's seat, please visit www.teapartypatriots.org and look up the group Fayette Patriots. We're standing strong for Fayette County, a part of which was "represented" by Murtha. Now we're standing up for America, and we can use your help. There is no way we intend to see this seat lost to another generation. We will put a CONSTITUTION-RESPECTING, FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE, FREE-MARKET BELIEVING leader who understands the necessity of LIMITED GOVERNMENT.
And someone who, if all goes according to plan, doesn't know the meaning of PORKBARREL SPENDING!
www.fayettepatriots.org
www.teapartypatriots.org
Thank you.
I'm sure you mean well...but....
A district on the take, eh?
A district crippled by George W. Bush.
Had the same thought , mainly for his family . The fighting can wait a few days .
i hope someone in the middle of the road wins.
No more pork!
Any candidate that runs on a believable message of an ability to bring "results" (e.g., defense contracts, government jobs, etc.) will win the seat. Murtha's district realizes that his pork acquisition has been an extremely vital lifeline to the area's economy, and it will vote en masse for whomever it believes can even remotely replicate that supply.
You really think that your pork barrel won't stop rolling now? Obama thought the Mass. seat was a lock too. I suggest you elect the guy who will teach you to fish and not the guy who just wants to supply you with the fish because all the slop is about to stop and the pigs are headed to the butcher.
Scorecard: 2010
Republicans win- New Jersey, Virginia, Mass.
Democrats- 0
Wow!! Sloppy reporting! Bob Casey did not die until like 2000, I think. Singel became governor cos Casey was incapacitated for some reason, NOT cos he died. OUCH!